Introduction

• General
  • What is risk?
  • 6 questions to define the project
  • The key areas of concern
  • What should risk analysis provide?
  • 3 Ways to view risk management
  • General comments on risk assessment
  • Accountability
  • General comments on planning
  • What are the core process steps to assess a risk?
  • Simple process outline
  • What are the basic overall process steps?
  • Stakeholders
  • Success measures
  • Why carry out Risk Assessment?
• Project Life Cycle
  • Project Life Cycle
  • Project Life Cycle - concept
  • Project Life Cycle - plan
  • Project Life Cycle - execute
  • Project Life Cycle - termination
  • Project Life Cycle - general points

• Terminology
  • Clarification of terms
  • Basic statistical terms

The Risk Management process

• General
• Define
  • Define the project
  • Define the project management process
• Identify the risks and responses
• Organise - prioritise risks and responses
• Ownership - risks, responsibilities and contractors
• Estimation
  • Size the risks
  • Simple estimating of risk
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Simple estimating of risk - more detail
  • Simple estimation problems
  • Obtaining the estimates
  • Breakdown of variables
• Evaluation
  • Estimates
  • Independent correlation
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Positive correlation
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Negative correlation
  • Conditional correlation
  • Cumulative probability graph
  • Cumulative probability graph 2
• Planning
  • Ways to modify plans
  • Plans and strategies
  • Types of plans
  • Dependencies - 4 basic types
  • Dependencies - 4 basic types
    part 2
  • Manage - plans and strategies

Risk issues

• General
  • Identify risk issues
  • Other issues
  • The contractor
  • Other aspects
  • Risk combination
• Assessment of risk
  • Common methods of assessing risk
  • Common methods of assessing risk 2
  • Issue based
  • Checklists
  • Qualitative method
  • Quantitative method
  • Quantitative method part 2
  • Quantitative method part 3
  • Quantitative method part 4

Modelling

• Cost models
  • Simple cost model
  • Cost model
  • Cost model part 2
• Monte Carlo model
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Monte Carlo simulation 2
  • Monte Carlo simulation - output
  • Monte Carlo distribution
  • Monte Carlo risk distribution
  • How do we carry out the simulations?
  • Probability density function - PDF
  • PDF - Simplified version

Events

• Uncertain
  • Uncertain events
  • Uncertain events part 2
  • Uncertain events part 3
  • Uncertain events part 4
• Corellated
  • Risk of exceeding the target cost
  • Correlated events
  • Correlated events part 2
  • Correlated events part 3
• 3 point model
  • 2 pathways
  • Simple probability estimation
  • Collecting task information
  • Documentation
  • Task probability
  • Monte Carlo risk distribution
  • Multiple variables

Networks and branching

• Network
  • Simple network
  • Simple network - no lag
  • Simple network - with lag
• Branching
  • Simple branching
  • Complex branching
  • Complex branching part 2
  • Multiple branching
  • Multiple branching part 2
  • Multiple probability branching
  • Multiple probability branching
    part 2
  • Nodes and branching networks
  • Branching networks
• Production example
  • Production example
  • Production example part 2
  • Risk of exceeding target duration

Other

• Business forecast
  • Business forecast
  • Business schedule risk
  • Business revenue and profit risk
  • Business revenue and profit risk 2
  • Business profit simulation
• Other areas to consider when reviewing risk
• Markov chain
• General points to consider
• Task information
  • Risk assessment of a task
  • Risk assessment of a task part 2
• Human relations
  • Negatives
  • Benefits

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